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Meine Welt von morgen: Philippe Martin

25. Mai 2009

Was kommt nach der Krise? Die FTD fragt prominente Ökonomen. Im WirtschaftsWunder finden Sie die Antworten in Original-Länge und -sprache. Heute: Philippe Martin. Der Franzose ist Professor am Sciences Po-Institut in Paris. Der Makroökonom ist besonders bekannt für seine Forschung auf dem Gebiet der Wirtschaftsgeografie. Hier gibt es den kompletten Fragebogen in Originallänge und –sprache:

 
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* Has the time of the United States as the world’s leading economic power come to an end? 

Not yet as the largest and richest economy of the world and it will take some time before China catches up. However, the time of the United States economic and especially financial model as the lead model has come to an end. Also, after the crisis ends, it is likely that the long term trend growth rate of the US will be lower. This should make it easier for China to catch up.

* In 2020, will China be the world’s economic superpower, or will it have collapsed just like Japan and other former would-be economic powers of the world?

It is likely that China’s exceptional growth rate is going to slow down as its income catches up to the rich countries. I see no reason for a collapse except for a political reversal. However, as China opens up its financial system the likelihood of a financial crisis is high in the next few years.

* What economic policy strategy would you recommend to the new US president Obama?

In the short term, I would recommend to stay the course on the fiscal stimulus. The danger is to believe that the few timid economic green shoots we now observe mean one can reverse the stimulus. This is what was done in the US in 1936 and this led to a fall back into recession.

* What is the most radical change in our global economic system that you would like to see?

A transformation of the main international institutions (IMF, World Bank, WTO) towards the end of the sole leadership of the rich countries. Inclusion of poor countries and emerging economies is essential.

* What sort of major step would most likely prevent the most disastrous effects of global warming?

A “cap and trade” system where polluters receive or buy emission permits, but where the number of available permits falls over time. China has to be part of the process.

* Would it be better to regulate capital markets as heavily as before 1980 again?

No we can’t go back to before 1980 but we have to find new ways to regulate capital markets in ways that into account the financial innovations.

* Will globalisation suffer a major setback in the next few years?

Certainly on international financial flows because this is where the gains are least obvious. On the “real” side, trade of goods and services, the collapse should be temporary except if there is a major political backlash on globalization through protectionism. But I do not see this as very likely.

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