Startseite > Chefökonom > Meine Welt von morgen: Augusto de la Torre

Meine Welt von morgen: Augusto de la Torre

13. Juli 2009

Was kommt nach der Krise? Die FTD fragt prominente Ökonomen. Heute: Augusto de la Torre ist Lateinamerika-Chefökonom der Weltbank. Bevor der aus Ecuador stammende Volkswirt nach Washington ging, war er Chef der ecuadorianischen Zentralbank. Zuvor arbeitete er bereits mehrere Jahre für den Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF). Lesen Sie hier seinen kompletten Antwortbogen in Originallänge und-sprache: Normal 0 21 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:”Normale Tabelle”; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:””; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:”Times New Roman”; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} Normal 0 21 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:”Normale Tabelle”; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:””; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:”Times New Roman”; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} Normal 0 21 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:”Normale Tabelle”; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:””; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:”Times New Roman”; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;}

*

* Has the time of the United States as the world’s leading economic power come to an end?

The crisis ravaged the most admired financial system in the planet, leading many to believe that the U.S. would be dethroned from its dominant position and the dollar lose its status of international reserve currency.  However, the opposite has happened so far.  The run against the dollar never materialized and the demand for the perceived safety of U.S. assets has surged.  Moreover, the U.S. has shown leadership in managing the crisis compared to other rich economies.  And the global recession revealed the great dependence of the world on the U.S.—i.e., that the U.S. cannot collapse without the world also collapsing.  In the future, the U.S. economy will certainly not wield hegemonic power but will remain as a central pillar of the global system.

* In 2020, will China be the world’s economic superpower, or will it have collapsed just like Japan and other former would-be economic powers of the world?

Neither scenario is likely to happen.  Rather than collapsing, China will continue to increase its importance as a player in global markets and its role in shaping global economic policy, along with other large emerging markets (Brazil, India, Mexico, and Russia).  However, it is unlikely that it will surpass the United States, certainly not in terms of income per capita.  China has a long way to go in reducing poverty and has yet to put in place the necessary reforms to modernize its domestic financial markets, address the rising rural-urban inequality, and create a functional social security system.  It will also need to find a new growth model, one that is less reliant on exports and more on consumer spending.  More fundamentally, China will only become an enduring world economic power by exerting its responsibilities in the world’s government, and that will take time.

* What economic policy strategy would you recommend to the new US president Obama?

The shorter run priority is to restore the U.S. economy to a sustainable (possibly more modest) growth path and rebuild a more prudent financial system.  Beyond that, it is imperative that the U.S. becomes a credible leader in the global effort to deal with climate change.  Education and health care reforms are long overdue, as is a serious debate on immigration policy reform.  The U.S. should remain the uncontested leader in keeping the world economy open.

* What is the most radical change in our global economic system that you would like to see?

Free labour mobility across borders would be a most radical change, and a welcome one, but it may be too much to ask from our nationalistic tendencies.  I would be satisfied with a serious move towards multilateralism and global institutions—the need for collective action on a world-wide scale is increasing inexorably because the social and cross-border implications of individual actions are growing in importance (global warming is a prime example).

* What sort of major step would most likely prevent the most disastrous effects of global warming?

It is critical to achieve a global agreement to drastically reduce world GHG emissions, ideally by the end of 2009 at the UN COP conference.  Climate change is proceeding at an even faster pace than what had been recently predicted by IPCC.  To minimize the risk of catastrophic damages, industrialized and developing countries alike need urgently to start moving towards a low-carbon growth path.  Rich countries must exercise strong leadership to generate incentives for investments in R&D and the adoption of low-carbon technologies as well as to ensure that the global response is equitable–i.e., wealthier countries that have had a greater responsibility in the historical accumulation of GHG in the atmosphere must carry a proportionately greater share of the burden.  To curve emissions in an effective and efficient way, countries should use, according to their circumstances, a combination of carbon taxes, cap and trade systems, subsidies, and regulations.

* Would it be better to regulate capital markets as heavily as before 1980 again?

It makes no sense to consider that alternative.  Markets have developed and changed considerably in the past decades, and regulating them as in the 1980s would be inappropriate.  A more nuanced regulatory system would be needed, in at least three dimensions.  First, regulation should better ensure that financial intermediaries and asset managers act more prudently with the money that is not theirs and do not take advantage of their less informed clients.  Second, regulation should induce financial intermediaries to take more into account the social and systemic costs and implications of their individual actions.  Third, regulation would need to tame the propensity of financial markets to be caught in euphoric moods of exuberant optimism followed by gloomy moods of exaggerated pessimism and panic.

* Will globalisation suffer a major setback in the next few years?

As risk aversion subsides, credit will be re-established, the economic activity will recover and trade and capital flows would pick up.  Hence, globalization should resume.  A major setback in globalization could be possible only if insufficient progress is made towards a stronger architecture of international institutions.

 

About these ads
Schlagworte:
Folgen

Erhalte jeden neuen Beitrag in deinen Posteingang.

Schließe dich 120 Followern an