Der andere Blick auf Boom und Krisen

Im Aufsteiger-Check stellen wir jede Woche Ökonomen aus den großen Schwellenländern sechs Fragen zur wirtschaftlichen Lage in ihrem Land. Heute: Stanislav Ponomarenko, Chefvolkswirt der ING Bank in Moskau. Er rechnet nicht mit einer neuen Rubel-Krise wie 1998.

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* How deep will be the slowdown of the Russian economy in 2009?

We expect for the first two quarters negative economic growth this year, with following moderate recovery. In real terms we anticipate 0.2%YoY GDP contraction for the whole of 2009.

* Which factors are driving the slowdown in Russia?

Like everywhere around the world it is the credit crunch, with following slump in demand. In Russia, this demand disruption was especially sensitive as in the previous several years both banks and corporates were actively attracting external capital to finance their business growth. Plus, the slump of commodity prices significantly reduced the revenues of Russia’s backbone oil and gas and metal and mining industries, translating into broader economy weakness.

* When will the Russian economy start to recover?

This to much extent depends on the recovery of commodity and capital markets. We do not rule out some positive trends closer to the end of 2009.

* How should the government respond to the crisis?

We consider tax cuts as the most efficient fiscal stimulus in case of Russia. Apart from this we see reasonable government support to export-focused sectors, as well as all efforts to preserve the banking sector stability. More rouble flexibility should also be helpful.

* Will we see a new rouble crisis in 2009?

Unlikely. The government and the CBR are both much better prepared to this crisis than in 1998. Russia still has world’s third largest FX reserves and a comfort debt level of less than 5%GDP. The state is already taking an active role to preserve economic and financial stability and what is more important – it can finance this from its own resources. Thus, with proper control on inflation we should not expect much rouble weakness going forward.

* What will be the biggest challenges to the Russian economy in the coming years?

Achieving positive real rates as a result of proper inflation control, which should help to develop domestic saving base and, thus, secure against global capital markets volatility. This indirectly envisages political will to carry out counter-cyclical economic policy. Another challenge is to avoid isolation from global competition as well as to create more favourable environment for FDI inflows.

* Where do you see the Russian economy in 2020?

World Top-6 economy, with progressing diversification from energy sector.