Der andere Blick auf Boom und Krisen

Was kommt nach der Krise? Die FTD fragt prominente Ökonomen. Heute: Andreu Mas-Colell (64). Der Spanier ist Präsident der Graduate School of Economics in Barcelona. Zuvor war er 16 Jahre lang Wirtschaftsprofessor in Harvard. Im WirtschaftsWunder finden Sie die Antworten in Original-Länge und -sprache.

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* Has the time of the United States as the world’s leading economic power come to an end? 

 No, it will have a smaller weight quantitatively speaking but I do not see any other candidate for the position of leader. What happens is that to exercise leadership the US will need, in possible contrast with the past, to display policies with which large segments of the world can identify.

 * In 2020, will China be the world’s economic superpower, or will it have collapsed just like Japan and other former would-be economic powers of the world?

The year 2020 is almost around the corner. So, the answer should be no, even if, as I would hope, there is no collapse. On the other hand the current world situation reminds us that every expansion ends at some point. Let’s hope for a soft landing.

 * What economic policy strategy would you recommend to the incoming US president?

 The Obama administration is doing pretty well. Keep it up.

 * What is the most radical change in our global economic system that you would like to see?

Elimination of agricultural protectionism and the setting up of strong, and well endowed with resources, cooperative institutions empowered with the mission to eliminate poverty in the world, and with the ability and the brains to do it intelligently.

 * What sort of major step would most likely prevent the most disastrous effects of global warming?

Two things have to happen: drastic reduction of CO2 emissions and economic development of the less developed world. Both can only happen with a very substantial transfer of resources from the rich to the less rich countries (and this has to be done well). In addition: massive research on energy, including the issues related to the residues of nuclear energy.

 * Would it be better to regulate capital markets as heavily as before 1980 again?

No. There is no way back.

 * Will globalisation suffer a major setback in the next few years?

Not a major setback. Perhaps a minor one. And more concentrated on the financial system than on trade. The experience of 1929 constitutes strong vaccination against protectionism.

Von Birgit Marschall