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Aufsteiger-Check: Chinas Wachstum könnte laut Weltbank abnehmen

23. Juni 2009

Im gerade veröffentlichten China Quarterly Update der Weltbank prognostiziert die Washingtoner Institution dem Reich der Mitte für dieses Jahr respektables Wachstum. Für das kommende Jahrzehnt sagt die Weltbank aber geringere Wachstumsraten voraus. Lesen Sie hier die Erklärung:  

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“More subdued exports are likely to lower GDP growth, although not dramatically. From 1998 to 2008, world imports grew 6.6 percent on average and China’s exports 19.7 percent, in real terms. In the coming decade, exports will grow less. How rapidly depends on world import growth, China’s competitiveness, and possible limits to its global market share. In an illustrative scenario, on the basis of mainstream projections for world imports and assuming a continued increase in market share reflecting strong competitiveness, the growth rate of China’s exports could average 9 percent in the coming decade— 10 percentage point (pp) less than in the previous decade. China’s global market share would be 12 percent in 2018. As a comparison, the US share peaked at 14 percent in the early 1990s. The value added contribution of exports to GDP now is estimated at almost 20 percent. Thus, as a rough, illustrative estimate, GDP growth could be (0.1*0.2=) 2 pps lower in the coming decade because of lower export growth. This is significant, but not dramatic, compared to average GDP growth of 10 percent in the previous decade.

A slowdown in potential output is likely to largely reflect lower capital stock growth. China’s potential output has grown fast in the previous decades, driven by rapid capital accumulation and TFP growth. Several factors will contain potential output growth in the coming years, largely affecting the capital stock. First, most importantly, investment is likely to be subdued in the coming years, especially in manufacturing, given the outlook for exports, spare capacity, and profits. Second, the composition of investment is changing now, with more government influenced investment (GII) and less market based investment (MBI). GII is likely to contribute less to narrow GDP growth than MBI in the medium term, largely because the economic returns of investment in infrastructure are spread out over a longer period than those of investment in equipment. GII is also likely to be less efficient. Third, some of the current capital stock in sectors facing particularly large spare capacity will have to be written off. In all, on reasonable assumptions, China’s capital stock would rise by 10 percent in the coming 5 years, compared to 13.3 percent in the previous 5 years. Potential output growth would be about 2 pp lower in the coming 5 years than in the previous 5 years.

Succesful rebalancing could help boost growth. In the transition to a new setting, TFP growth may be lower because of less migration out of agriculture and policies that channel resources to less efficient activities and firms. More progress with rebalancing would help offsetting this by generating more reallocation of labor from agriculture, more education, and more service sector productivity.”

Im Aufsteiger-Check beleuchten wir jeden Dienstag die aktuelle Lage in den großen Schwellenländern China, Russland, Indien und Brasilien.

 

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